Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Indianapolis Colts.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Indianapolis Colts
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Anthony Richardson
Kelley: Jonathan Taylor
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Michael Pittman Jr.
Kelley: Michael Pittman Jr.
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Adonai Mitchell Leads All IND Wideouts in Touchdowns
Kelley: Anthony Richardson Is Not Between QB6 and QB16
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson only played three full games as a rookie and racked up at least 17 points in each of those games, including 29.6 in one showing. Richardson had 40, 35 and 56 rushing yards to go along with four rushing touchdowns in his first three NFL games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. He only had a 59.5% completion percentage and is still very raw as a passer, but his rushing upside was on full display in Shane Steichen’s offense full of RPOs that plays fast. According to our Pace Tool, the Colts played at the quickest pace (24 second per snap) in a neutral setting (one-score game). They were also first in No-Huddle% (16.6%) in the same situations. Learning the offense on the sidelines in his first season could come with some benefits in Year 2, and on top of that, Richardson didn’t play any games with Jonathan Taylor last season. Taylor will only help Richardson and this offense grow. Richardson’s rushing floor should make him a rock-solid QB1 with potential to be a top-five player at the position.
Kelley: Jonathan Taylor
I mentioned in one article this offseason that Taylor and/or Zack Moss scored in 13 different games last year. I mentioned in another that they combined for 238.2 points, which would have been RB11 for one guy, and that’s with both of them struggling with injuries and Moss being a healthy step down from Taylor athletically, and with Anthony Richardson missing most of the season. Now, Moss is in Cincinnati, and Taylor is only backed up by Trey Sermon, Evan Hull and Tyler Goodson. A healthy Richardson will only boost the rushing efficiency of his star running back. The list of cons for Taylor in 2024 is very short, and it might not exist at all. He’s available at RB5 in current drafts, and even at that, I could argue he’s a value.
Busts
Meaney: Michael Pittman Jr.
I love Pittman as a player, I just feel he’s getting overdrafted this season based on some of his numbers in 2023. A lot of his production last season came with Gardner Minshew under center, as pointed out by our guy Mike Randle of FTN.
As Mike mentions, the sample size is small, but we don’t want to hear it. Pittman averaged fewer targets, catches and 22.67 fewer yards with Richardson than he did with Minshew. Now you add Adonai Mitchell to what will be a run-first offense with Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. I have a hard time believing that Pittman will come close to the 156 targets he had last season. He’s also never been a big touchdown player, as he’s had four or fewer in three of his four seasons in the NFL. At WR25 off the board, Pittman is going ahead of Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin and Chris Godwin. Those are all wideouts I would much rather have than Pittman.
Kelley: Michael Pittman Jr.
There are 28 wide receivers with at least 2,500 receiving yards across the last three years. Among those, only Chris Godwin (10) and Diontae Johnson (13) have fewer receiving touchdowns than Michael Pittman Jr.’s 14. (And Godwin at least has the excuse that his teammate Mike Evans leads the way in that time with 33.) For all his excellent receiving work (Pittman’s 8.1-yard average depth of target is third lowest among all 1,000-yard wide receivers last year, but he commanded 150 targets at over 2.0 yards per route run), Pittman has lacked success down near the goal line. Per FTN advanced stats, he scored 2 touchdowns on 20 red-zone targets last year — among wide receivers with at least 12 red-zone targets, only Godwin (1 TD on 16 targets) scored on a lower percentage than Pittman, and again, Godwin’s team could just look at the giant tree on the field and throw it to him. Pittman’s team has chosen to score on the ground, whether that’s through Jonathan Taylor or Zack Moss or through the quarterback. Pittman is about as high-floor a receiver as you’ll find, but he lacks an elite ceiling, and so when you’re drafting, better to opt for the higher ceilings in his range — guys like DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers or Tee Higgins.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Adonai Mitchell Leads All IND Wideouts in Touchdowns
I said wideouts, because I think Jonathan Taylor is in for a monster season, and he’s just a couple years removed from a season where he racked up 21 total touchdowns (18 rushing). Mitchell is exactly what the Colts have been missing in their offense for quite some time. He is a big body who can make contested catches. He’s great at tracking the ball in the air and has the ability to adjust and beat defenders one-on-one. And he’ll see plenty of one-on-one coverage with teams looking to defend the run with Taylor and Richardson. There’s no question boxes will be stacked against this Colts offense. I believe Mitchell can play the AJ Brown role in Steichen’s offense from his days in Philadelphia. Also, the addition of Mitchell puts everyone in their correct spots. Pittman will pick up the short and intermediate routes and targets, and Josh Downs can build off a strong rookie season where he played as the Colts’ primary slot receiver between the numbers and within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (7.21 aDOT). Meanwhile, Mitchell will replace Alec Pierce as the deep-threat option in the passing game, and the mix of one-on-one coverages and RPOs will allow Richardson to take some deep shots down the field.
Kelley: Anthony Richardson Is Not Between QB6 and QB16
This is kind of a hedge, but I think it makes sense. If you could tell me right now that Richardson plays all 17 games in 2024, or even 14-15, I’d be comfortable taking him as a top-five fantasy quarterback. We saw more than enough last year to believe in his fantasy upside, even if his real NFL upside might still be more of a question mark. He averaged 23.1 fantasy points per game through his first three contests before getting hurt in his fourth, and that includes only half of one of his three games. That would have been better than every quarterback last year but Josh Allen. So if Richardson is healthy, I’m comfortable with him being a top-five quarterback. And if he isn’t, I don’t want to draft him. Basically, it’s about how lucky you feel — league winner or season killer.
