Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Below, I will be highlighting a free bet for the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Hero Open from outside of the outright markets. Hitting winners is fun, but there are plenty of other ways (with less variance) to bet on golf and win some money. If you would like to read about my outright wagers, you can check out my Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Preview.
Unfortunately, between writing the article and having it posted, odds do sometimes change. If you’re looking to get alerts when I post my picks, they go up on the FTN Bet Tracker as well as the subscriber Discord.
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Make Cut – Russell Henley
-200 | BetMGM
I’ll get this out of the way first – Henley’s putting is the concern here. Tee to green, he’s one of the better golfers in the field, and the lack of creativity needed at Detroit Golf Club should help his pedestrian driving. He hasn’t done much in 2022, but in 13 events he’s only missed two cuts (US Open/RBC Heritage), and all we need this week is for him to find two solid rounds to start the tournament. The field, although stronger than last week, is simply tour-average skill level, and he’s played above that level all year, even despite the lack of leaderboard appearances.
Hero Open – DP World Tour
Top 20 – Hurly Long
+220 | Caesars Sportsbook
Long is having a career year on the DP World Tour and recently made a splash in two events that were PGA/DP World Tour co-sanctioned. He came stateside and finished fourth at the Barbasol and seventh at the Barracuda and is now back in Europe in search of his first victory. He’s not the strongest with his irons, but the rest of his game is better than most of the fields he’s in, allowing him to contend (and probably why he hasn’t been quite good enough to win). It can be hard to overcome poor iron play and win. However, we are only asking for a top 20, which he has done in 40% of his events this season. With his approach having been about average the last month, hopefully that trend continues – and we do see ball-striking improvements tend to last a bit longer than short game, so it’s possible. Even so, I think he’s one of the better golfers in this field and +220 is a generous number.
