Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The PGA Tour makes its way across the Midwest this week from Minneapolis to Detroit, where the fourth iteration of the Rocket Mortgage Classic will take place. The tournament will be played at Detroit Golf Club, a course we now have three years of data from. It’s the time of year that much of the FedEx Cup leaders are taking time off after the majors and before the FedEx Playoffs begin.
Per my ratings, the Rocket Mortgage has a slightly stronger field than last week’s 3M Open, but it also lacks a lot of depth. The field will be headlined by Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Max Homa, and Cameron Young. There are plenty of golfers taking aim at bolstering their position in the FedEx standings and trying to accrue enough points to hold on to their PGA Tour Card. With only two weeks left of the “regular season,” this is a fun race to following along with as well.
Detroit Golf Club Stats
- Par 72 – 7,320 yards
- Driving Distance – 293 yards
- Driving Accuracy – 65.6%
- Greens in Regulation – 72.5%
- Architect – Donald Ross
Key Takeaways
- There are more wedges than normal used, which has led to one of the lowest proximities to hole for any course on Tour
- Detroit GC seems to play straightforward, which has bunched the field together, making it harder to gain through ball striking
- OTT, APP, and ARG have ended up being less impactful than average at Detroit Country Club, while putting has seen a large spike. This doesn’t mean ignore tee to green, but good putting can be a large separator here
- For more notes and player quotes on the course, FTN Daily subscribers can check out Josh Culp’s Course Notes and Quotes.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Outright Bets
- Cameron Young 22/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Scott Stallings 66/1 (BetRivers) 6 place Each-Way
- Matt Kuchar 66/1 (BetRivers) 6 place Each-Way
Although his elite driving may not carry quite the same edge at Detroit GC, Cam Young (22/1) is still one of the best golfers in this field and also an above-average putter. We’ve seen Young contend at all sorts of different course this year, from the Old Course to Harbour Town, with PGA National in between – his game travels. Bryson DeChambeau has been an outlier over the last three years when he used his supreme driving to top the field in 2020 and Young is one of the best drivers in the world so despite what the course has shown, it is possible somebody like Young could gain a large amount OTT. It must also be noted thought that DeChambeau gained almost 2 strokes per round on the greens as well that week. Expectations would be Young will be among the top tee to green but the putter is going to have to show up this week. It’s still a bit shocking to me that in this field he opened at 22/1 on DraftKings considering the full body of work we have from him in 2022 and if the market is pricing Will Zalatoris and Tony Finau around 14/1, I think Young should be there as well.
Scott Stallings (66/1) has played in all three Rocket Mortgage Classics and should be familiar with the course and what he will need to do to succeed. Although his best finish here is 25th, he’s made the cut all three trips and he’s now playing perhaps the most consistent and well-rounded golf of his career. While he still has had hiccups over the last two months, when he’s made the cut (4 of 8) his worst finish is 25th and his other three finishes were T4, T8, T4. When things are clicking, he’s positioned himself on the leaderboard and this is another course and field in which he could possibly find that elusive victory. He has had the best putting year of his career in 2022 by far and while we know that doesn’t always stick, I feel it’s been a long enough sample to show at least a slight improvement in the skill and a major reason he’s been having a career year. 66/1 is too long for how he’s been playing and his new ability to putt better at a more consistent rate – I think 40/1 is a more appropriate number.
The last golfer in my preview will be Matt Kuchar (66/1) and I would not have guessed Kuchar would have been somebody I would be wagering on in 2022 but here we are. He had two wonderfully outings in April, finishing T2 at Valero Texas Open and followed that up with a T3 at RBC Heritage. Since, he hasn’t had another T10 however he’s made every cut, entirely due to his high gains through putting and around the green. His ball striking isn’t what it used to be but it’s been sufficient enough that he should still be giving himself plenty of looks this week and if he continues to putt as great as he has in 2022 there is no reason, he can’t find himself in contention once again. The fact that most of the field won’t have as large of an advantage through ball striking this week brings him closer to much of the field and being one of the best putters in Detroit will give him a leg up. Obviously when putting is more important to success volatility increases but we have to go on what we know and although it still may not work out, 66/1 should be lower with what he has shown us during 2022 and what we know about him as a golfer.
For all of my picks this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, as well as the DP World Tour event be sure to check out my Bet Tracker. If you’re not a subscriber yet, use code AXIS to get a 20% off discount.
