Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are eight evening games in Saturday’s NHL action that comprise the main contests at most DFS sites. Here’s a quick-hit preview with notes and recommendations to aid assembling your fantasy lineups.
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New York Islanders (-118) at New York Rangers
Perhaps the most telling takeaway from the one-sided Thursday matchup was the Isles generating eight high-danger scoring chances in the third period while limiting the Blueshirts to just one. Typically, teams will sit back with a four-goal lead, but that obviously wasn’t the case. It’s also worth noting that the Kaapo Kakko experiment playing alongside Ryan Strome and Artemi Panarin failed in Game 1. The trio posted a horrific 23.5 Corsi For percentage and generated just a single high-danger scoring chance at five-on-five. As a result, Alexis Lafreniere replaced Kakko in practice Friday, which is a huge boon to the rookie’s fantasy stock considering Strome and Panarin combined for an elite 5.51 goals per 60 minutes last year. Keep tabs on Tony DeAngelo. He didn’t practice Friday.
The Islanders are a little bit boring, but it’s worth noting how Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle caved in their opponents with a 68.2 Corsi For percentage and combined for three goals and two assists. This sets up as another tough matchup for the Rangers, but expect a closer game in the rematch.
Carolina Hurricanes (-235) at Detroit Red Wings
As discussed Thursday, Detroit doesn’t match up well against Carolina. The Hurricanes held the Red Wings to just 34 shot attempts and eight high-danger scoring chances, and Petr Mrazek turned in a quiet, 14-save shutout. There’s really no reason to expect anything significantly different Saturday, either. In fact, only scoring twice on 42 shots — 78 attempts — likely signals for positive regression in the goals column.
Carolina’s underwhelming offensive results Thursday definitely had something to do with Thomas Greiss’ play. He was generally an above-average goaltender through his five seasons with the Islanders, so if he continues to see the shot volume he received Thursday, he’ll be a candidate to lead the league in saves. There’s sneaky fantasy value potential. Up front, Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi treaded water Thursday and created three high-danger scoring chances with a mediocre 41.7 Corsi For percentage, whereas the second line was a complete mess. Robby Fabbri, Filip Zadina and Vladislav Namestnikov generated three shot attempts at five-on-five and surrendered 11. With a deep player pool, the Red Wings are probably best ignored unless utilized as full-out contrarian selections.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-190) at Ottawa Senators
The North Division is going to be high scoring and a lot of fun this year. While it wasn’t overly enjoyable for Toronto during its 5-3 loss to Ottawa on Friday, the Maple Leafs are still significant favorites over the Senators again on Saturday. Most notably, Auston Matthews has now gone two games, 10 shots and 19 attempts without a goal. Expect the drought to end. Additionally, Jack Campbell brings a career .916 save percentage and warrants attention in all fantasy settings.
The Senators impressed Friday. It’s hard to imagine it will be smooth sailing all season, but production peaks and valleys present profit opportunities. Friday night was a great buy-low spot, whereas it might be a sell-high one Saturday. The Josh Norris–Drake Batherson–Brady Tkachuk line totaled one goal and six assists but lost the possession battle. Still, Ottawa appears to have a number of capable scorers, and most of them are cheap in DFS for the time being.
Montreal Canadiens (-110) at Edmonton Oilers
Repeat, the North Division is going to be high scoring and a lot of fun this year. Montreal has had two days to stew over its 5-4 overtime loss to Toronto — especially since it was a game the Canadiens never trailed in. However, the Habs are up against it again with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to contain. Rookie Alexander Romanov had a strong debut and could quickly establish himself as a reliable fantasy contributor. Additionally, Nick Suzuki’s star continues to shine, although time will tell whether he can keep pace with the high-end centers within the division night in, night out.
It’s easy to forget how highly regarded Jesse Puljujarvi was leading into the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. The 22-year-old winger isn’t skating with McDavid or Draisaitl yet, but it might just be a matter of time before he climbs the depth chart. Puljujarvi attempted eight shots Thursday, including three high-danger chances. He’s on the rise. Tyson Barrie is also ripe to reward again Saturday. The top-unit, power-play quarterback has obvious upside, but his floor shouldn’t be ignored, either. Barrie has five shots and four blocked shots through two games to start the campaign.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Nashville Predators (-125)
As exciting and high scoring as the North Division matchups are likely to be, this Central Division tilt projects to be tactical and defensively sound. Add solid goaltending and another low-scoring contest is likely. As noted ahead of Thursday’s matchup, Nashville allowed the fourth-fewest goals at five-on-five last season, and Columbus the sixth-fewest.
It’s worth noting Max Domi was benched late in Thursday’s contest, so his ice time is worth monitoring for the immediate future. Also, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Oliver Bjorkstrand and Mikhail Grigorenko were impressive Thursday with a 68.4 Corsi For percentage through 11:25 of ice time at five-on-five. However, to reaffirm just how stingy these two teams can be, there were only 11 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five in the entire game Thursday.
Minnesota Wild (-137) at Los Angeles Kings
This could be another low-event, low-scoring contest, as while there were seven goals in their meeting Thursday, the Wild and Kings also generated only 11 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five. For Los Angeles, it’s worth noting Anze Kopitar (23:28) and Drew Doughty (29:12) logged huge minutes, which in turn enables more opportunities to produce. Additionally, Sean Walker is projected to return from the COVID-19 protocol, and he’s a respectable cross-category contributor.
At this stage of the game, everything begins and ends with Kirill Kaprizov. He wrapped up his smooth NHL debut with the game-winning goal in overtime Thursday and added two helpers while logging 21:52 of ice time (7:42 with the man advantage). Keep an eye on his center heading into Saturday’s game. Viktor Rask replaced Nik Bjugstad between Kaprizov and Zach Parise Thursday, and Rask is probably the better fit.
Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames (-148)
Another North Division showdown. The Flames blew a two-goal lead Thursday and recorded just two high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five after the first period. Calgary’s best line was Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk and Dillon Dube with 12 total shot attempts, whereas Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau both found the scoresheet to kick-start what should be bounce-back seasons for the proven veterans. Burying the lead, former Canucks Chris Tanev and goaltender Jacob Marstrom will face their former club for the first time Saturday, whereas former Flame Travis Hamonic will suit up for the Canucks.
Vancouver was excellent in their opening game against Edmonton, but then had some poor puck luck in the rematch losing 5-2 despite winning the five-on-five possession battle (55.9 Corsi For percentage). The Canucks are likely going to be a little inconsistent this season, especially with Braden Holtby’s underwhelming play the past three seasons and Thatcher Demko’s inexperience. Additionally, the Canucks are shallow on paper behind Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser and Quinn Hughes. Speaking of Hughes, he’s close to automatic at this point with a sixth-ranked 2.19 points per 60 minutes among regular defensemen dating back to last season.
Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights (-235)
Anaheim battled back admirably with two tallies to tie Thursday’s game 2-2 in the first period, but three unanswered third-period goals from Vegas cooked the Ducks. Interestingly, Anaheim won the possession battle at five-on-five through two periods (58.2 Corsi For percentage), too. However, it’s definitely important to note that the Golden Knights generated 13 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five and held Anaheim to just six all game.
It all adds up to Vegas being a huge favorite again Saturday, and likely popular targets in DFS. The Chandler Stephenson–Max Pacioretty–Mark Stone line was the best Thursday with a goal and five high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five, but it’s important to note that Stephenson doesn’t project to receive power-play time. Robin Lehner is also a strong option, especially with most of Anaheim’s shots likely coming from the perimeter again.
