Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NHL docket doubles in size Thursday with 20 teams hitting the ice. The Bruins, Hurricanes and Golden Knights are the only significant favorites, and their players should be popular selections. With the luxury of a taxi squad, and the uncertainties because of the COVID-19 protocols, it will be all the more important to monitor DFS lineups right up until puck drop.
Note: The Florida-Dallas game has been postponed, so adjust fantasy lineups accordingly.
Washington Capitals (-140) at Buffalo Sabres
Aside from handing the crease over to 23-year-old Ilya Samsonov, the Capitals return a familiar squad. The young Russian should see plenty of goal support, though. Washington scored the third-most goals per 60 minutes while generating the sixth-most high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five last year. Interestingly, the club also took a low-risk flier on veteran defenseman Zdeno Chara to make life in front of their young goalie all the more difficult for opponents. One concerning trend is Washington’s negative regression with the man advantage. The Caps’ power-play percentage has dropped in each of the past four seasons.
Look for line movement in this contest, as the Caps opened as small road favorites (-130), which is giving Buffalo a lot of credit. There is reason for optimism, though. Rasmus Dahlin appears on the verge of becoming an elite blueliner, and the acquisition of Taylor Hall to play with superstar Jack Eichel gives the Sabres one of the best potential one-two punches in the league. Adding veteran Eric Staal shouldn’t hurt, either. Still, there are questions in goal, and Buffalo hasn’t played .500 hockey since the lockout-shortened, 2012-13 campaign. They’ve also missed the playoffs each of the past nine seasons.
Boston Bruins (-175) at New Jersey Devils
Boston will ice a new-look defense this season after the free-agent departures of former captain Zdeno Chara and long-time, power-play quarterback Torey Krug. Interestingly, the Bruins opted to address the losses from within the organization, so look for youngsters Jeremy Lauzon and Jakub Zboril to play meaningful minutes while Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk will be asked to play tougher minutes. Up front, rookie Jack Studnicka will replace David Pastrnak (hip) on the No. 1 line alongside veterans Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. It’s a huge opportunity for Studnicka to cement a consistent scoring role.
Even with all the Boston offseason changes in mind, the Devils are notable underdogs on home ice for a reason Thursday. In fact, 24-year-old netminder MacKenzie Blackwood will probably need to steal this one for New Jersey to pull off the upset. The absence of Nico Hischier (leg) will hurt an already unimpressive attack that scored just 2.25 goals per hour at five-on-five last season — seventh-fewest in the league. It’s a horrible matchup, too. Boston allowed the fewest last year. For the time being, it’s probably best to consider most New Jersey skaters contrarian options until they prove otherwise or land in a plus-matchup.
New York Islanders at New York Rangers (-115)
Islanders’ head coach Barry Trotz knows how to slow down opponents, as the club has allowed the third-fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five over the past two years under his watch. It’s been a great change of fortune for the New York goalies, and the Semyon Varlamov–Ilya Sorokin tandem should have solid fantasy seasons. Varlamov will start against the Rangers on Thursday. Up front, there aren’t many changes, but offense was sometimes hard to come by for New York. The Isles scored the sixth fewest goals per hour and owned the 24th-ranked power-play unit last year.
The Rangers are just the opposite. Loaded with offensive talent, the Blueshirts scored the fifth-most goals per 60 minutes in the league last season while boasting the seventh-best power-play percentage. Add No. 1 overall pick from the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, Alexis Lafreniere, and the team should be all the more dangerous. Of course, Artemi Panarin can’t go without mention, either. The Hart Trophy candidate posted an elite 4.01 points per hour and should once again post dominant offensive numbers with an improved supporting cast surrounding him.
Carolina Hurricanes (-210) at Detroit Red Wings
The Hurricanes are deep and play excellent possession hockey. They ranked third in Corsi For percentage (54.3) while generating a second-ranked 12.39 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Up front, Andrei Svechnikov is an emerging superstar, and Sebastian Aho already owns the billing. Jordan Staal and Vincent Trocheck are excellent compliments up the middle for Aho, too. The blueline is also loaded with two-way contributors, and in particular, Dougie Hamilton. Just note, despite a rock-solid 120-89-23 record over the past three seasons, the Carolina team save percentage at five-on-five (.914) ranks fourth worst. Goaltending continues to be a concern.
As noted, this is a horrible matchup for the Red Wings, as Detroit ranked last in goals against per 60 minutes, penalty-kill percentage and Corsi For percentage. As a result, it’s no surprise the Hurricanes are a huge favorite. It will still be worth keeping tabs on Detroit’s No. 1 line, though. Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi combined for a solid 4.74 goals per hour last season. Additionally, it will be interesting to see if the offseason signing of Thomas Greiss will help. Through five seasons with the Islanders, the German posted a respectable 101-60-17 record with a .915 save percentage and 2.70 GAA.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Nashville Predators (-125)
Don’t expect a lot of offense in this tilt. Nashville allowed the fourth-fewest goals at five-on-five last season, and Columbus the sixth-fewest. Additionally, both clubs have excellent top-four defense pairings and roll four lines rather equally, which limits the offensive upside of each team's top forwards. In fact, both clubs also boast high-end defensemen in Roman Josi for the Preds, and Columbus’ Seth Jones and Zach Werenski.
Most important for fantasy managers Thursday, though, is goaltending. Columbus has an excellent tandem of Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins, whereas the Predators are likely to turn more frequently to Juuse Saros instead of veteran Pekka Rinne. Once announced, the Blue Jacket starter could be in play for Thursday’s DFS action, and Columbus could be a worthwhile underdog bet.
Calgary Flames (-115) at Winnipeg Jets
It’s somewhat interesting to see the Flames open as short road favorites. The signing of Jacob Markstrom should prove to be a notable upgrade in goal for Calgary and mitigate any other lineup changes, though. After all, his .917 save percentage ranked fourth among all netminders with at least 40 starts last season. Additionally, the Flames should receive improved offensive production from Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan after both posted career-low shooting percentages in 2019-20.
Keep an eye on the status of Nikolaj Ehlers. The winger is currently in the league’s COVID-19 protocol, so lineup changes could be last minute for the Jets. However, what’s guaranteed is reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck will be between the pipes for Winnipeg. The Jets should also receive a boost from the reacquisition of veteran center Paul Stastny. He’ll bring needed depth up the middle behind Mark Scheifele.
Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers (-135)
One of the best features of the current division setup and scheduling are all the home-and-home matchups. The Canucks beat Edmonton 5-3 Wednesday while holding superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to a single assist between them. Brock Boeser scored twice for Vancouver, and Quinn Hughes picked up where he left off last season with two helpers. Look for a bounce-back showing from the Oilers Thursday — at least offensively. Rarely are McDavid and Draisaitl held in check for long.
San Jose Sharks at Arizona Coyotes (-130)
The Western Division projects to be the most unbalanced in the league with three high-end teams, two middling teams and the Sharks, Ducks and Kings. It’s all but certain that San Jose is trending in the wrong direction, and the Evander Kane distraction probably doesn’t help. It seems fitting that aging blueliners Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson and Marc-Edouard Vlasic complement goalies Martin Jones and Devan Dubnyk, who are probably both past their respective primes. Last year was the Sharks’ first losing season since the 2002-03 campaign, so it’s been a good run.
Arizona checks out as one of the middling teams in the division, and while the names on the roster don’t jump off the page, the Coyotes should challenge for a playoff berth. Darcy Kuemper has been a reliable netminder with an impressive .923 save percentage through 94 starts over the past three years for Arizona, and the Coyotes have a number of solid youngsters closing in on their prime years. While the fantasy prospects beyond Kuemper aren’t overly promising, Arizona’s moneyline is probably currently a little short.
Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights (-210)
As noted, this contest sets up as one of the many lopsided bouts we’ll see in the Western Division. Anaheim has an underwhelming collection of skaters and scored the sixth-fewest goals per hour at five-on-five in the league while ranking second last in power-play percentage last year. However, the biggest concern for the Ducks is probably that John Gibson’s play has declined considerably. His save percentage has dropped in consecutive seasons, including all the way down to a discouraging .904 mark last year.
The Golden Knights are loaded throughout the lineup, and especially on the blue line after adding Alex Pietrangelo in free agency. Add two proven netminders, and Vegas is already playing for playoff seeding. It’s worth tracking Chandler Stephenson’s play. He’s been handed a ripe opportunity between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone at even strength.
Minnesota Wild (-140) at Los Angeles Kings
This is a coin-flip matchup. Minnesota plays stingy defense and allowed the fewest high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five in the league last year. While their top-four defense is rock solid, questions in goal need to be answered. Cam Talbot had a bounce-back showing last year, but he’s still far from a sure thing. It’s also worth noting the Wild will look different up the middle with veterans Eric Staal and Mikko Koivu playing elsewhere.
Los Angeles has one of the brightest futures in the league with a slew of high-end prospects closing in on NHL action. Unfortunately, the current roster leaves a lot to be desired. The Kings’ core pieces — Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick — are all over 30 and either past or in the twilight of their prime years, so there could be a couple more tough seasons ahead for LA. Additionally, the Kings’ once-dominant possession and shot-suppression game is now more of a middle-of-the-road one.
