Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL preseason has come to an end, and Week 1 is now in our sights. With the last batch of fantasy football drafts coming up, now is a great time to take a look back at what we learned from the preseason and how we can apply it to our fantasy football drafts.
We’ll close it out with the NFC. Check out Monday’s version on the AFC.
Arizona Cardinals
Could Greg Dortch be the WR2 in Arizona? He’s been getting a lot of hype this offseason, and with Zay Jones suspended for the first five weeks, there is a real opportunity for Dortch to emerge as the second wide receiver behind Marvin Harrison Jr.
Atlanta Falcons
It is no secret that Bijan Robinson’s usage last season was… head-scratching, to say the least. As a rookie, Robinson averaged just 12.6 carries per game. His short-yardage usage was awful, seeing two total goal-line carries and just 18.2% of Atlanta’s carries inside the 5. However, new head coach Raheem Morris stated the Falcons want to give Robinson the football as much as possible, and there have even been comparisons to Christian McCaffrey’s workload. That would be nice.
Carolina Panthers
I’m all in on the Bryce Young breakout season, and his preseason play has only made me more confident. Dave Canales’ new scheme is already doing wonders for Young, who in 2023 averaged 1.63 yards of separation per pass attempt to wideouts and tight ends, a bottom-five mark in the league. We’ve also seen Diontae Johnson unsurprisingly become the absolute focal point of this Carolina passing attack.
Chicago Bears
Cole Kmet should not be started in any fantasy football leagues. Going into the season, I was already worried about Kmet. Once Shane Waldron was brought in, I knew we’d see multiple tight ends involved in Chicago. That has been the case everywhere he’s been, especially in Seattle last year. Last year, Noah Fant ran a route on just 50% of dropbacks (25th among tight ends), while his 13% target per route run rate ranked 49th at the position. Although the Bears now have arguably the league’s best wide receiver trio, I still expect Waldron to run a ton of 12 personnel. The Seahawks ran two tight end sets 22% of the time last year (12th) and Fant essentially split the snaps and routes with Colby Parkinson. And during the preseason this year in Chicago, Kmet was splitting work with Gerald Everett, who has been with Waldron for years.
Dallas Cowboys
Do we want any part of this backfield? It sounds like Rico Dowdle is the favorite to lead the Cowboys in carries, but you have to expect Ezekiel Elliott to have a role in both passing downs and at the goal line. And while I don’t think he ends up playing much of a role, Dallas did feel the need to sign Dalvin Cook recently.
Detroit Lions
There has been so much hype surrounding Jameson Williams this offseason, and I get it. This is his first normal offseason in the NFL — with Josh Reynolds gone, there is an opportunity for him to become a full-time player for one of the best offenses in football. He’s impressed in training camp, though I do think his ADP has climbed far too high this summer.
Green Bay Packers
No doubt one of the most polarizing positions in all of fantasy football has been the Green Bay wide receiver room. Despite the stellar play from Dontayvion Wicks last season, he is still comfortably operating as the team’s WR4. Jordan Love continues to speak very highly of Romeo Doubs, who is not coming off the field, while Christian Watson is the most talented player at the position. Meanwhile, Jayden Reed is the player Matt LaFleur gives most of the schemed touches to, whether it be via motion or carries.
Los Angeles Rams
Did you hear that Kyren Williams is going to return punts for the Rams this season? All jokes aside, we truly don’t know if this is a plus or minus for Williams’ fantasy value in 2024. Sean McVay stated he simply wanted to get the ball in Williams’ hands more, but at the same time, we have also seen rookie Blake Corum get some reps with the first-team offense.
Minnesota Vikings
The discussion in Minnesota all offseason has been the quarterback position. Rookie JJ McCarthy was pushing Sam Darnold for the starting job before suffering a season-ending injury. Darnold has been playing well but if I could give any advice to the veteran signal caller, it would be this: Throw the ball to Justin Jefferson. A lot.
New Orleans Saints
Perhaps they are saving it for the regular season, but we really didn’t see much of an uptick in pre-snap motion or play-action from the Saints during the preseason, which is a staple of the offense Klint Kubiak wants to run. In 2023, the Saints ranked bottom-three in pre-snap motion rate, while Chris Olave only had two receptions when in pre-snap motion all year long. I’m hoping to see Kubiak design more layups for Olave and Rashid Shaheed this year.
New York Giants
Malik Nabers is going to see all of the targets. And he should. He saw a whopping 33% target share in the Giants preseason game against the Texans, as Daniel Jones was constantly looking in his direction.
Philadelphia Eagles
I’m excited about what Kellen Moore will bring to this entire Philadelphia offense in 2024, specifically for DeVonta Smith. More motion and more usage out of the slot is incoming for Smith, which we’ve seen a bit during practices this offseason. Over the course of his career, Smith has operated out of the slot just 23.2% of the time. Expect that to rise with Moore calling plays in Philadelphia.
San Francisco 49ers
With the season-ending injury to Elijah Mitchell, it appears that Jordan Mason is now the direct backup to Christian McCaffrey, who has averaged 334 touches over the past two seasons. Mason has been impressing head coach Kyle Shanahan this offseason, too.
Seattle Seahawks
While I still believe that Zach Charbonnet is a viable sleeper candidate this year, it sure sounds like Kenneth Walker III is the clear lead running back in Seattle. The coaching staff has been talking him up all offseason, while it was Charbonnet, not Walker, getting all of the reps during the preseason games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan is someone to keep an eye on. The Bucs have been speaking so highly of him all offseason and McMillan proved them right by showing serious flashes during the preseason.
Washington Commanders
We already understood it. but the preseason showed us that Jayden Daniels has immense fantasy football upside. During his first preseason game, he connected on a deep ball and scored a rushing touchdown on the same drive, while we know Washington will play at a top-five pace under Kliff Kingsbury. The Commanders haven’t given us the full entree in terms of what their offense will look like, throwing a ton of screens throughout the preseason. But make no mistake: Daniels is going to attack vertically in this offense.
