What Changed in 2021: Quarterbacks

No year in football is the same.

Unless, of course, you’re a New York Jets fan. 

But for the most part, things are changing each season in the NFL, especially when it comes to fantasy football. Knowing what changes year after year is important, but it is even more important to understand why those changes came about. So here at FTN Fantasy, we will dive into some of the changes in the fantasy football landscape over the course of the 2021 campaign.

Let’s start with the quarterback position.

Deep passing impact in fantasy football

One of the storylines of the 2021 season was the poor stretch of play from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense. There was a six-game stretch this past season when Mahomes threw for less than 261 passing yards four times, while failing to reach the 200-yard mark twice during that span. During that stretch, Mahomes averaged an ugly 6.25 yards per pass attempt. Was this play a result of Mahomes no longer being good at football? Of course not. It was, however, opposing defenses changing the way they defended the Chiefs, as well as some other high-powered offenses. 

The two-high safety shell was a popular look from defensive units in 2021, and because the NFL is a copycat league, many teams deployed this coverage, especially against teams like the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Through the first nine weeks of the season, the Chiefs faced at least two high safeties on over 80% of pass plays, per ESPN Stats and Info. During that stretch, Mahomes averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt, which ranked 24th among all passers. Meanwhile, 19.6% of his pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage (third-highest rate), a number that was at 21% over the course of the season, up from his 15.3% mark from the 2020 campaign. Because defenses were so worried about getting beat over the top, Mahomes had to remain patient and take the underneath completions, which wasn’t something he wanted to do. It was a huge reason for his lack of a fantasy ceiling during stretches of the season, and when it was all said and done, Mahomes finished with a career-worst yards per attempt (7.4), while his average depth of target (7.5) was also the lowest of his career. 

Buffalo’s Josh Allen had a very similar impact this past season. His yards per attempt dropped from 7.9 to 6.8, as Buffalo faced the same two-high safety looks as the Chiefs, particularly in a Week 9 contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars. In that game, Jacksonville played two-high on 65% of Allen’s dropbacks, which led to the Pro Bowl quarterback averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt. Over the course of the season, Allen was forced to check the ball down far more often than he would have liked, as his completed air yards per attempt dropped from 4.7 in 2020 to 4.1 this past season. Of course, both Mahomes and Allen still put together stellar fantasy seasons, especially Allen, who has now finished as the QB1 in consecutive seasons. But the way opposing defenses defended both passers certainly had an impact.

As for the rest of the league, there was a slight drop. In 2020, the average intended air yards per pass attempt was at 7.8, a number that dropped to 7.6 this past season. It will be interesting to see how often teams run this defense heading into next season, especially since the top offenses eventually adjusted and found plenty of success in the running game. Now, defenses using this coverage isn’t some ground-breaking concept or anything. It has been used for years. However, it was interesting to see how it impacted some of the best arms in the game and how they adjusted over the course of the year.

Joe Burrow joins the fantasy football elite

Joe Burrow’s rookie campaign ended after just 10 games in 2020 after suffering a torn ACL and MCL. He averaged a respectable 17.8 fantasy points per game in those 10 outings, but after an offseason to recover, along with a reunion with college teammate Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow exploded during his sophomore season and led the Bengals to a Super Bowl. Burrow finished the 2021 campaign with 34 passing touchdowns, while passing for over 4,600 yards. He finished as the QB5 on the season and averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. His 0.56 fantasy points per dropback were good for sixth-most in the league, while his 8.9 yards per attempt led the NFL. It was so impressive to see Burrow complete 70.4% of his passes, which also led the league, despite 13.1% of his passes traveling 20 yards or more. His 12.6 yards per completion ranked second in football, while his 13 passing touchdowns of 20-plus yards easily led the league. 

The Burrow-to-Chase connection dominated the NFL, and the addition of Chase helped unlock Burrow’s ceiling. Burrow eclipsed 400 passing yards in three different games, while throwing for 525 yards in a Week 16 game against Baltimore, good for the fourth-most in a game in the history of football. No duo was more dangerous on vertical routes, as Chase finished top five in both yards per reception (18.0) and yards per target (11.4). With Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon, this Cincinnati offense is as young and talented as any in football. This alone should keep Burrow inside the top-five fantasy signal-callers for years to come.

Ryan Tannehill comes back down to earth in fantasy

During his first two seasons as the Titans starting quarterback, Ryan Tannehill was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in all of football. In fact, during that span, only Lamar Jackson averaged more fantasy points per dropback than Tannehill (0.68). He was insanely productive during that time, while also posting yards per attempt marks of 9.6 and 7.9, the two highest marks of his career. Tannehill ranked third and 13th in intended air yards per attempt in those two seasons. Despite the lack of elite volume, Tannehill was stellar, but his numbers plummeted in 2021. 

Tannehill threw 21 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, the latter being more than his two previous seasons combined. He was also outside the top-15 quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback and failed to reach 300 passing yards in all but two games. Tannehill threw for less than 200 yards in six different contests and only put together four games with multiple touchdowns. And yes, I get it. Both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones missed plenty of time last year. However, if you look at the eight games Tannehill played with both receivers in the lineup, he still only tossed 11 touchdown passes, while averaging a respectable, but not amazing, 18.8 fantasy points per game. A lot of his production came on the ground during that span, as he led all quarterbacks with four rushing touchdowns in those weeks, while also adding 132 rushing yards. We’ll see what he looks like with a more healthy Tennessee offense next year, but Tannehill was making decisions he hadn’t made in years past. According to FTN Fantasy’s advanced passing stats, Tannehill recorded 29 interception-worthy passes, way up from his 2020 total of 14. 

Passing TD%

In 2021, the overall passing touchdown rate fell off. Jameis Winston led the league with an 8.7% touchdown rate but only played seven games and attempted 161 passes. Aaron Rodgers led all quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts with a 7.0% passing touchdown rate. That was the lowest number for a league-leader in that department since the 2009 season when Drew Brees posted a 6.6% mark. When looking at quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts last season, the average passing touchdown rate was 4.4%, down from 2020’s rate of 5.1%. 

It certainly didn’t help that players such as Ryan Tannehill, who flirted with a 7% touchdown rate in 2020, took a huge step backward in 2021, sporting a 3.95% rate. Of course, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones missing a combined 11 games didn’t help, which really impacted Tannehill’s overall efficiency. Entering the 2022 season, I fully expect the overall passing touchdown rate to climb back up.