Week 9 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

The Bills rolled the Seahawks, 31-10, gashing the Seahawks on the ground for 164 yards. We return undaunted, as the moneyline plays are high-upside bets that only need one week to get us back into the net positive. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 9 of the 2024 season.

Week 9 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Panthers +7 vs. Saints 

(+265, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Let’s go big or go home. 

We are backing our biggest ML play of the season at +265 with the Panthers at home. It’s always nice to see our FTN NFL Betting Model providing an edge in a game I projected as a ML pick. This is a pick against the Saints, who have struggled mightily with six straight losses. There is hope that quarterback Derek Carr will return, but there are still injury concerns to lead running back Alvin Kamara who is working through a broken hand and now a rib injury from last week. Wideout Chris Olave returned from injury in Week 8 but was sent to the medical tent again on this hit. This Saints offense is a shell of its early-season form, especially without deep threat Rashid Shaheed (out for season). 

The Panthers were blitzed by the Saints, 47-10, in Week 1 at New Orleans, but have a much-improved rushing attack since that first game. Running back Chuba Hubbard ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (593) and is averaging a robust 5.0 yards per carry. While the betting public waits for rookie Jonathan Brooks to be active on gameday, there is still a chance that Hubbard controls this backfield for the foreseeable future. He has been very productive and is a valuable receiving target for a struggling quarterback in Bryce Young.

The Saints have done nothing to inspire confidence as a seven-point road favorite. They rank dead-last in rush defense DVOA, and in the bottom-10 in adjusted sack rate per StatsHub. Carolina has also won two of the last three matchups at home against New Orleans. 

Our FTN Betting Model shows a slight 6.5% edge on the Panthers +7 so I’m rolling with the Panthers to get their second win at home. The +265 would be the biggest ML hit of the season.

Risk

1 Unit to Win 2.65 Units