Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With another week of fantasy football in the rearview, quarterback streamers are back. Every week, I’ll lay out streaming options for the quarterback position that are viable alternatives considering their matchup that week.
Last week’s streamer results
Teddy Bridgewater, QB20, 13.0 fantasy points
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB30, 2.8 fantasy points
Derek Carr, QB21, 12.5 fantasy points
Last week the wheels came off the QB streamer party bus. In-game injuries crushed Bridgewater and Garoppolo. Carr was sucked up in the Cleveland tsunami, which led Jon Gruden to feed Josh Jacobs. This week we get back on the good foot, and MC Hammer dance to fantasy football wins.
Roster percentage under 50%
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (42% rostered) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Yes, Carr was abysmal last week, but this week's game isn't projected to be encompassed by a vortex of wind and rain. California's sunny 60-degree weather can unlock this Raiders' passing game and prove we were a week early on Carr week. The Chargers have quietly allowed the third-most fantasy points per game (22.6) to opposing quarterbacks. This matchup sets up nicely for his receiving weapons to carry him to a top-12 fantasy performance this week. Los Angeles allows the third-most receiving yards per game (91.0) and fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. Tevaughn Campbell, in replacement of Desmond King last week, was no better in covering the slot. Last week, Campbell allowed all five targets in his coverage to be secured while also giving up a receiving touchdown and a 158.3 passer rating. The Chargers are also ranked 29th in DVOA versus the tight end position. Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow are all in plus spots here.
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos (10%) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Recommending Lock doesn’t invoke a good feeling in any week, but because of the lack of options below 50% rostered and tough matchups, here we are. The Falcons remain a struggling pass defense. With Raheem Morris, Atlanta is 30th in explosive pass rate allowed. The defense remains ranked 31st in DVOA against passing. Lock has been featuring his tight ends this season, and this matchup is a fantastic game to continue doing so. The Broncos rank fourth in target share to the tight end position (30.1%). The Falcons have struggled mightily to defend the position all year long, ranking 30th in DVOA against tight ends. Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam could be on the receiving end of all Lock’s touchdown passes this week. Lock is a frightening fantasy proposal this week, but this is a potential ceiling week if the Falcons push the Broncos to keep throwing.
Break glass in case of emergency
Nick Foles, Chicago Bears (9%) vs. Tennessee Titans
Having to start Foles in any format might follow with nausea and an overall feeling of malaise, but he’s in a sneaky good spot this week. Foles should have time in the pocket this week against a pass rush that is seventh lowest in pressure rate. When Foles is scanning the field, he should find a wide-open Darnell Mooney and Jimmy Graham. Johnathan Joseph can’t hope to stay with Mooney on the outside. This season Joseph has allowed a 64.7% catch rate, four receiving touchdowns and a 119.5 passer rating in his coverage. The Titans rank 25th in DVOA versus the tight end position. The Bears have preferred throwing in the red zone, which raises both Foles’ floor and ceiling. Chicago has the fifth-highest red-zone passing rate (64%). The Titans have been giving through the air inside the 20, ranking 23rd, allowing a 99.8 passer rating and 14:1 touchdown:interception ratio. Foles falls a distant third in the pecking order behind the above options, but he is viable this week.
