Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Steelers vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Travis Etienne to earn 19.0 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
- Travis Etienne has been much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this season (66.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.6%).
- With a fantastic rate of 71.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (93rd percentile), Travis Etienne ranks among the best pure runners in football this year.
- This year, the shaky Steelers run defense has allowed a massive 143.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 4th-most in football.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 36.8% run rate.
- As it relates to opening holes for runners (and the effect it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Jaguars ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year.
- Travis Etienne’s ground efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 3.92 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.07 mark last season.
- The Steelers linebackers grade out as the 7th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
