Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Giants vs. Jets
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-109/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 69.5 (-112).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 4th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.1% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The 9th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Giants this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).
- In this contest, Saquon Barkley is predicted by the model to finish in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.3 carries.
- Saquon Barkley has generated 71.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (93rd percentile).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.
Cons
- The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -3-point underdogs.
- The projections expect this game to have the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.80 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- In regards to run support (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the New York Giants grades out as the 8th-worst in the league last year.
- When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, New York’s collection of DTs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 9th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards
87
Rushing Yards
