Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Vikings vs. Cardinals
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to garner 17.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
- Dalvin Cook has earned 72.9% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Dalvin Cook has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (73.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
- The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
