Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Sam LaPorta from EV Insight

Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards

Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-137) after it opened @ 45.5 (-117).

Pros

The Lions have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Sam LaPorta to earn 6.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Sam LaPorta has posted a staggering 51.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
With a remarkable 52.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (95th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates among the best tight ends in the pass game in the league.

Cons

This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect the Detroit Lions as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.5 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Raiders, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 33.4 per game) this year.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards