Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Raiders
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-137) after it opened @ 45.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Lions have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.1 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The leading projections forecast Sam LaPorta to earn 6.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
- Sam LaPorta has posted a staggering 51.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- With a remarkable 52.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (95th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta rates among the best tight ends in the pass game in the league.
Cons
- This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
- The projections expect the Detroit Lions as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.5 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Raiders, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 33.4 per game) this year.
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
