Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nico CollinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Panthers vs. Texans
Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Texans to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 61.7 plays per game.
- In this week’s contest, Nico Collins is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 80th percentile among WRs with 7.4 targets.
- Nico Collins has put up a monstrous 83.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among WRs.
- Nico Collins’s 86.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year shows a remarkable growth in his receiving ability over last year’s 48.0 rate.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The model projects the Texans as the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
- This year, the tough Carolina Panthers defense has given up a measly 134.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
