Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Panthers vs. Texans
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-120) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Texans to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 61.7 plays per game.
- This week, Dalton Schultz is predicted by our trusted projection set to land in the 87th percentile among tight ends with 5.5 targets.
- Dalton Schultz has posted a colossal 45.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among tight ends.
- Dalton Schultz’s 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in football: 90th percentile for TEs.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The model projects the Texans as the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
- Dalton Schultz is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in just 64.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 21st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
