Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Commanders vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Dallas Goedert has run a route on 87.8% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Our trusted projections expect Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has accrued a massive 32.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
- Dallas Goedert has been one of the top tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a fantastic 6.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Eagles offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per play.
- Dallas Goedert has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (45.0) this season than he did last season (58.0).
- This year, the tough Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a measly 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
