Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).
Pros
- An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a huge -7-point underdog this week.
- Courtland Sutton has run a route on 92.2% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- The projections expect Courtland Sutton to earn 7.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- Courtland Sutton grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 57.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
- Courtland Sutton’s receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 59.4% to 75.7%.
Cons
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Broncos are anticipated by the model to call just 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The fewest plays in football have been run by the Denver Broncos this year (just 51.1 per game on average).
- Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.9 per game) this year.
- After totaling 100.0 air yards per game last season, Courtland Sutton has gotten worse this season, currently averaging 63.0 per game.
- Courtland Sutton is positioned as one of the bottom wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 21st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
