Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cooper KuppReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Rams
Right now, Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 82.5 (+100) after it opened @ 84.5 (-115).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 64.3% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- In this game, Cooper Kupp is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 100th percentile among wideouts with 12.1 targets.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
- The Los Angeles O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Cooper Kupp’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 76.4% to 58.8%.
- The Cowboys defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 120.0) versus wideouts this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
99
Receiving Yards
99
Receiving Yards
