Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Rams
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-115/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-120) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
- The projections expect CeeDee Lamb to accrue 8.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
- With a terrific 80.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (91st percentile) this year, CeeDee Lamb places as one of the top WRs in the game in the league.
Cons
- With a 6.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to pass on 56.9% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- CeeDee Lamb’s 22.3% Target Rate this year conveys a significant decline in his passing game volume over last year’s 28.8% rate.
- After totaling 94.0 air yards per game last year, CeeDee Lamb has been a disappointment this year, currently pacing 66.0 per game.
- This year, the stout Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded a meager 54.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards
82
Receiving Yards
