Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Panthers vs. Texans
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-130) after it opened @ 65.5 (-125).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The Texans defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.
- Adam Thielen has totaled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (89.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Panthers to pass on 56.9% of their chances: the 11th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
- This year, the daunting Houston Texans pass defense has yielded the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a feeble 3.4 YAC.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Houston’s collection of CBs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
