Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-120/-100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (-100) after it opened @ 90.5 (-110).

Pros

This week, A.J. Brown is predicted by the model to place in the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 9.7 targets.
A.J. Brown has compiled significantly more air yards this year (140.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point surge in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, A.J. Brown has been more prominently featured in his offense’s passing offense.
A.J. Brown has compiled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (109.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
The Commanders defense has given up the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (202.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Eagles offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per play.

Projection

THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards