Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Commanders vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-120/-100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (-100) after it opened @ 90.5 (-110).
Pros
- This week, A.J. Brown is predicted by the model to place in the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 9.7 targets.
- A.J. Brown has compiled significantly more air yards this year (140.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point surge in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, A.J. Brown has been more prominently featured in his offense’s passing offense.
- A.J. Brown has compiled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (109.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
- The Commanders defense has given up the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (202.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Eagles offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per play.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards
92
Receiving Yards
