Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyson BagentPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Chargers vs. Bears
Right now, Tyson Bagent’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 201.5 (-115) after it opened @ 202.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyson Bagent in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This week’s spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bears, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.
- The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (39.8 per game) this year.
- This year, the porous Los Angeles Chargers defense has been torched for a monstrous 328.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the most in the league.
- This year, the feeble Los Angeles Chargers defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing teams: a whopping 9.24 yards.
Cons
- The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Bears offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.21 seconds per snap.
Projection
THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards
223
Passing Yards
