Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Rams
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 255.5 (-110) after it opened @ 260.5 (-115).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 64.3% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Our trusted projections expect Matthew Stafford to throw 37.5 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
- The Los Angeles O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Matthew Stafford’s 58.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys an impressive diminishment in his passing accuracy over last season’s 65.3% rate.
- This year, the stout Cowboys defense has given up a paltry 193.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
