Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 231.5 (-115) after it opened @ 228.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.
Baker Mayfield has thrown for significantly more adjusted yards per game (217.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the league vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (79.2% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
With a subpar 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target (22nd percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield has been among the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards