Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Keaontay Ingram from EV Insight

Keaontay IngramRushing Yards

Right now, Keaontay Ingram’s rushing yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-142) after it opened @ 37.5 (-119).

Pros

The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 44.3% run rate.
Our trusted projections expect Keaontay Ingram to be a more important option in his offense’s ground game this week (36.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Keaontay Ingram’s rushing effectiveness (2.28 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (21st percentile when it comes to RBs).
This year, the porous Seahawks run defense has been torched for a staggering 3.11 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 31st-biggest rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Rushing Yards