Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Ravens vs. Lions
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-140) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to run on 50.6% of their opportunities: the greatest rate on the slate this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
- This week, Gus Edwards is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 13.7 carries.
- Among all RBs, Gus Edwards grades out in the 76th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 35.2% of the workload in his team’s running game.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens offense to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
- The projections expect the Ravens offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.80 seconds per play.
- Gus Edwards’s 3.8 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects a an impressive diminishment in his rushing prowess over last season’s 4.8 mark.
- Gus Edwards has been less successful in grinding out extra running yardage this season, averaging 2.46 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.64 figure last season.
- The opposing side have run for the fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 60.0 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
