Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Ravens vs. Lions
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens offense to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
- The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
- With a high 94.8% Route Participation% (95th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers ranks among the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
- Our trusted projections expect Zay Flowers to accumulate 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
- Zay Flowers profiles as one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 63.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The projections expect the Ravens offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.80 seconds per play.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
- This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a puny 7.8 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
