Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 99.5 (-110) after it opened @ 95.5 (-110).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.
In this week’s contest, Tyreek Hill is projected by the model to rank in the 98th percentile among wide receivers with 11.1 targets.
Tyreek Hill has put up quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (120.0) this season than he did last season (92.0).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.83 seconds per play.
After accumulating 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has seen a big decline this season, now sitting at 124.0 per game.
The Eagles pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (58.9%) to wideouts this year (58.9%).
This year, the strong Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a mere 3.0 YAC.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Philadelphia’s collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
93
Receiving Yards