Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler LockettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-151/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-151) after it opened @ 54.5 (-119).
Pros
- Right now, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (62.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Seahawks.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
- The model projects Tyler Lockett to total 8.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs.
- Tyler Lockett has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 23.1% this year, which ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- This year, the poor Cardinals defense has yielded a whopping 186.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see only 127.1 total plays called: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
- Tyler Lockett has posted a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
- Tyler Lockett’s possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 75.8% to 69.3%.
- Tyler Lockett’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, notching just 7.83 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.55 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
