Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Vikings vs. 49ers
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s line suggests a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 69.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- The 49ers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (39.8 per game) this year.
- The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to accrue 9.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).
- After accruing 59.0 air yards per game last season, T.J. Hockenson has regressed heavily this season, currently sitting at 51.0 per game.
- T.J. Hockenson’s 4.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season marks a an impressive regression in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 6.2% mark.
- The 49ers pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (54.5%) versus TEs this year (54.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
