Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Ravens vs. Lions
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-125) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens offense to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
- The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
- In this contest, Mark Andrews is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 95th percentile among TEs with 6.6 targets.
- Mark Andrews rates as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a remarkable 59.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
- Mark Andrews’s 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a a material gain in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 65.7% mark.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The projections expect the Ravens offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.80 seconds per play.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
- Mark Andrews’s 23.3% Target Share this year represents a a noteable regression in his passing attack volume over last year’s 29.9% rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
