Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mark Andrews from EV Insight

Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-125) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens offense to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
In this contest, Mark Andrews is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 95th percentile among TEs with 6.6 targets.
Mark Andrews rates as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a remarkable 59.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
Mark Andrews’s 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a a material gain in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 65.7% mark.

Cons

The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Ravens offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.80 seconds per play.
Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
Mark Andrews’s 23.3% Target Share this year represents a a noteable regression in his passing attack volume over last year’s 29.9% rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards