Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This game’s line implies a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- The predictive model expects the Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- This week, Keenan Allen is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 11.9 targets.
- Keenan Allen’s 109.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a a remarkable gain in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 80.0 figure.
Cons
- The projections expect the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 1.8% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
- This year, the fierce Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a paltry 6.6 yards.
- The Chiefs pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.83 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the league.
- When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City’s unit has been great this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
96
Receiving Yards
96
Receiving Yards
