Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jordan Addison from EV Insight

Jordan AddisonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jordan Addison’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s line suggests a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 69.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
The 49ers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (39.8 per game) this year.
The model projects Jordan Addison to earn 8.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).
With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Jordan Addison places as one of the best WRs in the game in the league in space.
The 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus wide receivers this year, surrendering 7.12 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in football.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards