Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s line implies a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- The predictive model expects the Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- In this contest, Gerald Everett is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.
- Gerald Everett’s 82.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a a noteworthy growth in his receiving prowess over last season’s 69.2% rate.
Cons
- The projections expect the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 1.8% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
- After accumulating 31.0 air yards per game last season, Gerald Everett has regressed heavily this season, now pacing 12.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Gerald Everett has been featured much less in his offense’s passing attack.
- Gerald Everett has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
