Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-114).
Pros
- Cade Otton’s 84.4% Route Participation% this year shows a a substantial progression in his pass game volume over last year’s 63.9% figure.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
- Cade Otton’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.2% to 76.1%.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (53.0) versus tight ends this year.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
