Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cade Otton from EV Insight

Cade OttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-114).

Pros

Cade Otton’s 84.4% Route Participation% this year shows a a substantial progression in his pass game volume over last year’s 63.9% figure.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Cade Otton’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.2% to 76.1%.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (53.0) versus tight ends this year.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards