Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-110) after it opened @ 223.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens offense to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
Lamar Jackson’s passing precision has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 62.9% to 71.1%.
With an excellent 7.44 adjusted yards-per-target (82nd percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson places among the most efficient passers in football.

Cons

The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Ravens offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.80 seconds per play.
Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
The model projects Lamar Jackson to throw 29.5 passes this week, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all QBs.

Projection

THE BLITZ
201
Passing Yards