Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Ravens vs. Lions
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-110) after it opened @ 223.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens offense to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
- The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
- Lamar Jackson’s passing precision has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 62.9% to 71.1%.
- With an excellent 7.44 adjusted yards-per-target (82nd percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson places among the most efficient passers in football.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The projections expect the Ravens offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.80 seconds per play.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
- The model projects Lamar Jackson to throw 29.5 passes this week, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all QBs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
201
Passing Yards
201
Passing Yards
