Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 273.5 (-110) after it opened @ 266.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s line implies a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
The projections expect Justin Herbert to throw 39.2 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 3rd-most among all QBs.
With a fantastic record of 274.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Justin Herbert rates as one of the top quarterbacks in football this year.

Cons

The projections expect the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 1.8% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
This year, the fierce Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a measly 209.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 7th-fewest in football.
The Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 6.56 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City’s unit has been great this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards