NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-110).
Pros
- Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (67.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills.
- In this contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the model to have the 8th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.5.
- When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.
- Josh Allen checks in as one of the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 269.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
- This year, the poor New England Patriots defense has allowed a massive 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.
Cons
- This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7.5 points.
- Our trusted projections expect the Bills offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.75 seconds per snap.
- This year, the tough Patriots defense has given up the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a measly 4.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards
261
Passing Yards
