Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-110).

Pros

Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (67.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills.
In this contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the model to have the 8th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.5.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.
Josh Allen checks in as one of the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 269.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
This year, the poor New England Patriots defense has allowed a massive 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

Cons

This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Bills offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.75 seconds per snap.
This year, the tough Patriots defense has given up the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing teams: a measly 4.6 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards