Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jordan LovePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Broncos vs. Packers
Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Green Bay Packers.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- This year, the feeble Denver Broncos defense has allowed a monstrous 82.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the worst rate in the NFL.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, giving up 9.41 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the league.
- When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Denver’s LB corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league.
Cons
- The model projects the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 52.2 per game on average).
- With a bad 56.8% Adjusted Completion% (3rd percentile) this year, Jordan Love rates as one of the least on-target QBs in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
216
Passing Yards
216
Passing Yards
