Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Eagles vs. Dolphins
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 261.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- The most plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 67.2 per game on average).
- Jalen Hurts has attempted 37.7 passes per game this year, checking in at the 84th percentile when it comes to QBs.
- The Philadelphia offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for a staggering 254.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 10th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3 points.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
- As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami’s group of safeties has been great this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
