Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).

Pros

The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
At the present time, the 6th-most run-heavy offense in football (42.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Texans.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays called: the most among all games this week.
The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.8 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Dameon Pierce to accrue 19.7 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.

Cons

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
The Houston offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.
Dameon Pierce’s 49.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year signifies a a noteable reduction in his rushing talent over last year’s 71.0 rate.
Dameon Pierce’s 2.9 adjusted yards per carry this year signifies a a significant regression in his running ability over last year’s 4.2 rate.
The opposing side have rushed for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 87.0 per game) vs. the Saints defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards