Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Texans vs. Saints
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- At the present time, the 6th-most run-heavy offense in football (42.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Texans.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays called: the most among all games this week.
- The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.8 plays per game.
- The leading projections forecast Dameon Pierce to accrue 19.7 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- The Houston offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.
- Dameon Pierce’s 49.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year signifies a a noteable reduction in his rushing talent over last year’s 71.0 rate.
- Dameon Pierce’s 2.9 adjusted yards per carry this year signifies a a significant regression in his running ability over last year’s 4.2 rate.
- The opposing side have rushed for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 87.0 per game) vs. the Saints defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards
89
Rushing Yards
