Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 282.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 282.5 (-110) after it opened @ 274.5 (-110).
Pros
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 319.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season marks a a substantial improvement in his throwing talent over last season’s 253.0 rate.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 72.0% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a a noteworthy improvement in his throwing precision over last season’s 64.0% figure.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 9.60 adjusted yards-per-target this year reflects a an impressive growth in his passing effectiveness over last year’s 8.2% figure.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.30 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 8th-most in the NFL.
- The Panthers cornerbacks project as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- With a 14-point advantage, the Dolphins are overwhelmingly favored in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
- The projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-fewest out of all QBs.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Panthers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
273
Passing Yards
273
Passing Yards
