Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Rams vs. Cardinals
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 278.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 278.5 (-110) after it opened @ 281.5 (-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Rams this year (a monstrous 64.4 per game on average).
- The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off.
- In racking up a colossal 42.5 pass attempts per game this year, Matthew Stafford places among the top quarterbacks in football (100th percentile) in this respect.
- The Cardinals defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (38.2 per game) this year.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Rams being a 6.5-point favorite this week.
- The model projects the Rams to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
- Matthew Stafford’s passing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 60.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards
267
Passing Yards
