Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joshua DobbsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Rams vs. Cardinals
Right now, Joshua Dobbs’s passing yards prop is set at 216.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 216.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- This game’s spread suggests a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- Joshua Dobbs’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.4% to 65.7%.
- The Los Angeles Rams linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The projections expect the Cardinals offensive approach to skew 5.5% more towards the ground game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
- Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (55.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 4th-fewest yards in the league (just 200.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Rams defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
217
Passing Yards
217
Passing Yards
