Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Panthers to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.46 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Lions defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Cons

Hayden Hurst’s 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 28.8.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Hayden Hurst has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).
Hayden Hurst’s 65.4% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a an impressive regression in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 79.1% mark.
Hayden Hurst’s 5.4 adjusted yards per target this season represents a a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 6.6 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards