Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Dolphins vs. Giants
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 286.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 286.5 (-115) after it opened @ 285.5 (-118).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate.
- Tua Tagovailoa has passed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (338.0) this season than he did last season (253.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa’s passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 71.8%.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s pass-game efficiency has improved this season, notching 9.95 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 8.22 rate last season.
- New York cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a heavy 13-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 10th-fewest yards in football (just 218.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the New York Giants defense this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season (67.9% Adjusted Completion%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
