Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Scoring thresholds – QB: 19 fantasy points, RB: 12 points, WR: 11 points, TE: 10 points; 0.5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 4 Lames on Twitter @NoisyHuevos.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(51% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $6,100)
Matchup: vs. LAC
Vegas line/Total: TB -7, 44
For the NFL’s golden boy, the smooth transition from years of dominance and deflated balls in New England to heavy Vitamin D dosages hasn’t fully gone to plan. Last week’s 297-3-0 thrashing of a downtrodden Denver defense was Brady of yore, but subpar efforts against New Orleans and Carolina prompted many to wonder if he, like Drew Brees apparently, had finally succumbed to Father Time’s inevitable sucker punch. However, QB12 in adjusted completion percentage and QB7 in deep-ball completion percentage, he’s not showing signs of deterioration, at least under the surface. On pace for 4,243 passing yards and 32 touchdowns, the G.O.A.T., honestly, is exactly where bookmakers projected where he would be.
This week, the future Hall of Famer sticks his finger in a light socket. The Chargers pack quite the defensive jolt. Slot man Chris Harris is sidelined by a foot injury, but Casey Hayward (56.8 passer rating, 0.75 yards/snap allowed) and his unheralded cohort Michael Davis (90.7, 1.17) have applied a stranglehold. The Joey Bosa-led pass rush also ranks No. 5 in pressures per dropback (27.3%). As a collective, L.A. has yielded 6.6 pass yards per attempt, 243.3 passing yards per game and three passing TDs to signal callers. Likely without the services of Chris Godwin, Brady adds a couple wrinkles.
Fearless forecast: 249 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 15.9 fantasy points
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
(96%; $7,100)
Matchup: at TB
Vegas line/Total: TB -7, 44
An undrafted product from tiny Western State in Gunnison, Col., Ekeler has delivered nothing but enormous gains over his four years in the league. Rising from obscurity to fantasy indispensability, he’s morphed from Philip Rivers’ checkdown favorite to certifiable between-the-tackles grinder. Justin Herbert’s insertion into the starting lineup has done wonders for the rusher.
Underutilized in Week 1 as a receiver by Tyrod Taylor, he’s caught 15 passes for 139 yards since. Ekeler, presently RB10 in YAC per attempt and near the top in missed tackle percentage (25.3), is locked in as a RB1 in 12-team leagues rest of season. The Chargers’ unheralded offensive line ranks No. 6 in adjusted line yards.
This week, however, the Bolt could walk the plank. One of the most underpublicized stories of the young year is just how stingy Tampa’s defense is, particularly defending the run. They’ve given up four touchdowns to RBs in three games but have stuffed gaps to the tune of 2.6 yards per carry allowed. Linebacker Devin White alone has accounted for 10 tackles for loss. Ekeler’s pass-catching prowess is well-documented, but an average day on the ground is distinctly possible.
Fearless forecast: 16 carries, 47 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 30 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.2 fantasy points
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team
(87%; $5,800)
Matchup: vs. BAL
Vegas line/Total: BAL -13, 47
Close your eyes. Imagine for a second McLaurin is teamed with Patrick Mahomes, or, hell, Josh Allen. Count the catches. Compute the fantasy points. Now open … The reality is stark for one of the game’s most electric talents. Dwayne Haskins is a modern-day Rex Grossman, an inaccurate passer who’s a magnet for turnovers. The passer ranks dead last in adjusted completion percentage and comically has yet to complete a pass beyond 20 yards (0-for-8). Remarkably, McLaurin is the 13th-ranked wide receiver in 0.5 PPR formats, but, again, imagine if he hauled in passes with even a semi-competent QB. The 33.6% of Washington’s air yards he’s logged would be fully realized.
Baltimore was mercilessly humbled by Patrick Mahomes last Monday. From start to finish, Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey were rolled in batter and deep fried, cooked on explosive pass plays to Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. McLaurin has the skills to match, but the Ravens, presumably peeved by their efforts, should take out frustrations on Haskins. Prior to the Mahomes buzzsaw, they had surrendered just 6.1 pass yards per attempt. Including Week 3’s spanking, Smith has allowed only 0.45 yards per snap and an 87.3 passer rating to his assignments.
Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 0 touchdown, 8.6 fantasy points
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
(53%; $5,300)
Matchup: vs. CHI
Vegas line/Total: IND -2.5, 45
T.Y. officially stands for “Total Yuck.” Though his WR12 standing in air yards percentage (35.7%), 17.7% target share and 13.5-yard average depth of target suggest the numbers will eventually come, Frank Reich’s conservative nature and an overall lack of rhythm with Rivers say otherwise. He can be acquired for next to nothing, but give it another week and you’ll be able to net him for a bag of nacho cheese Bugles.
Chicago, not exactly the Fightin’ Fozzy Bears many — myself included — thought the secondary would be, has displayed sharpened claws versus the pass. Rookie DB Jaylon Johnson has yielded just 0.99 yards per snap while crafty veteran Kyle Fuller has conceded the third-lowest passer rating (41.3) among corners with at least 75 snaps played. Overall, the Bears have allowed 6.5 pass yards per attempt. In the end, given the club’s mediocre execution in the trenches (4.9 YPC to RBs), a heavy serving of Jonathan Taylor is most likely in store.
Bottom line, book a room somewhere else.
Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.3 fantasy points
Bonus lames (Over 50% started)
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Line: DAL -4.5; DK: $7,800) — Going to battle against one of the virtual game’s truest workhorses normally leads to a ribs-displacing trampling. Only four times in his past 34 games has he failed to cross the 13 fantasy points mark in 0.5 PPR leagues. But this glutton for punishment is ready with sword in hand, fully prepared to charge into the machine-gun laden line. Sporting a 2.90 YAC per attempt and 20.5 missed tackle rate, Zeke, frantically scooping Fruit Loops from an oversized bowl, is up to his usual level of productivity. This week, however, isn’t a fall stroll through the park. Cleveland is legitimately stifling in the trenches giving up 3.3 yards per carry, 100.3 total yards per game and the seventh-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Against the run, Porter Gustin and Sione Takitaki have totaled 11 tackles for loss. (FF: 18-60-0-3-23-0, 9.8 fantasy points)
RB: Melvin Gordon, DEN (Line: DEN -1; DK: $6,900) — When the devil greets this eternally damned soul at the gates of hell he will welcome me with a pitchfork and viewing device with Broncos/Jets playing on loop. This is a game not for the fantasy faint of heart, Gordon supporters very much included. Unless Jeff Driskel displays semi-competency, the veteran is a tough-to-employ RB2 in 12-team formats. His 3.21 YAC per attempt and three runs of 15-plus yards are commendable, but Denver’s mediocre line combined with likely overloaded boxes suggest staying away. The Jets are a dumpster fire floating in a tempest, but they’re an at least adequate run defense. (FF: 14-51-3-11-0, 7.7 fantasy points)
WR: Tyreek Hill, KC (Line: KC -7; DK: $6,900) — Last week, the $450 million Mahomes displayed why he’s worth every penny. From start to finish, he carved up Baltimore’s supposedly stout secondary with precision all-points passing. Hill obviously benefited by hauling in five passes for 77 yards and a TD. One of the leaders in air yards percentage (33.8%), the premier field stretcher is delivering as advertised, tallying three touchdowns in three games. The last time he squared off with New England, Week 14 2019, he posted a serviceably 6-62-0 line. Mahomes can slice and dice anyone, but whether clashing with J.C. Jackson (91.4 passer rating allowed) or Stephon Gilmore (98.4), the speedster may only post pedestrian numbers in Week 4. (FF: 5-67-0, 9.2 fantasy points)
TE: Evan Engram, NYG (Line: LAR -13; DK: $4,400) — The Giants are munchkins in just about every facet imaginable. Daniel Jones, who this ninnyhammer believed was set for a top-10 fantasy season, has failed miserably to measure up. Currently QB22 in adjusted completion percentage, he’s crumbled behind a moveable offensive line that’s placed him under pressure on 42.5% of his dropbacks. Engram has lured a decent target share (17.9%) and is one game removed from a double-digit fantasy performance against Chicago, but New York’s red zone infrequency implies he’s merely a middling option for virtual GMs. The Rams have allowed three TDs to TEs in the early going, though they held Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz under 43 yards. (FF: 4-32-0, 5.2 fantasy points)
DST: New Orleans Saints (Line: NO -4; DK: $3,500) — In my best used car salesman voice, “If you like points, well, come on down and explore the NFL’s Week 4 inventory. Big points. Big deals. No credit check required!” With seven games sporting 50-plus totals, scoreboards should be lit. Strangely, the Saints, despite giving up 94 points through three weeks, are still being started in half of Yahoo leagues. The voodoo hex placed on Marshon Lattimore (158.3 passer rating allowed) has minimized the overall unit’s impact. Hello, Kenny Golladay. Fifth-worst in pressures per dropback (17.2%), the Saints are not recommended against a Lions front that’s kept Stafford clean on 71.7% of his snaps. (FF: 30 PA, 493 YDSA, 2 SCKs, 1 TO, 1.0 fantasy point)
Season record: 13-15
Week 3 results: 5-4
W: Joe Mixon, Darren Waller, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, D.J. Moore
L: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, CEH, Stefon Diggs
DNP: Julio Jones
